Soderstrom Extension Raises Question Around 'Who’s Next?'
The future of the team's contract extensions hangs in the balance, with a complex dance of interests and desires at play. It's a delicate negotiation, requiring a careful balance between insurance and potential earnings, current and future budgets, and upside and risk. The focus is on two key players: Nick Kurtz and Jacob Wilson.
Nick Kurtz
Kurtz, a star player, is a strong candidate for an extension. An 8-year, $150M deal could be a sweet spot, offering a slight improvement over Roman Anthony's recent contract. While Anthony is younger and has better defensive ratings, Kurtz's offensive upside is unparalleled (171 wRC+ in his rookie season, .619 slugging percentage).
This extension would extend Kurtz's contract by three seasons, keeping him in the A's system until he's only 30, an ideal age for free agency. The $150M guarantee provides insurance against injuries, but it's also a bargain if Kurtz stays healthy and productive. In a straightforward scenario, this deal becomes a front-loaded $18.75 AAV contract, ensuring Kurtz earns significantly more than $1M in the next two seasons, followed by substantial earnings for the next three.
The contract structure can be flexible, with the possibility of back-loading to reflect the typical earnings curve of young players, e.g., $5M in early seasons and $25M in later ones. This allows the A's to manage their budget effectively as they transition to a higher revenue stage.
Questions to Discuss:
1. Is Kurtz likely to accept this offer?
2. Would the A's be willing to offer such a deal?
3. What is the most favorable 'sweet spot' in terms of years and dollars for both parties?
Jacob Wilson
Wilson, a talented player, presents a different set of considerations. His injury history, defensive metrics, and the potential need to move to a less valuable position due to the arrival of Leo De Vries are red flags. Wilson's value is closely tied to his high batting average/BABIP.
A year-to-year approach with Wilson is wise, as he will be on the league minimum for the next two seasons and eligible for arbitration amounts that the A's can manage. The existing contract provides flexibility, allowing the team to let him walk after 2030 or trade him in 2029/2030.
A 'sweet spot' could emerge if Wilson accepts a lesser money deal, recognizing the risks. The A's might offer something like 7 years, $63M, similar to Whit Merrifield's deal with the Royals. While there are differences between Wilson and Merrifield, this comparison provides a starting point for discussion.
Questions to Discuss:
1. Is a 7-year, $63M deal a realistic starting point for negotiations?
2. If not, what is the ideal 'sweet spot' in terms of years and dollars?
3. Should the A's extend Wilson or focus on other players like Kurtz?
